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I’m guessing that there’s a question as to whether a default on GM’s bank loans would trigger the CDS And then there’s also the question of what would be auctioned and delivered in any CDS auction:When a company files for bankruptcy or fails to meet its interest payments the market stages an auction to determine the value of the defaulted debt and how to compensate the CDS holdersThe value assigned to the CDS relies on investors being able to buy and sell bonds in the open market so it is problematic for the newly revived GM not to have any bonds outstandingThis isn’t really true CDS auction prices are emphatically not a function of the open-market secondary-market price for individual bonds: that’s why there’s an auction in the first place Would bank loans not be eligible to be tendered as cheapest-to-deliver debt securities The article doesn’t say But whenever any company has $46 billion in bank loans outstanding there’s a secondary-market price for those loans so in principle it should be possible to find them and deliver them If the number of loans outstanding is small then that just creates a familiar problem in the CDS market when the amount of CDS written is larger than the amount of debt outstanding The CDS market has dealt with that problem many times and it’s not really an issue any moreIn any event it has long been common practice for banks to hedge their loan exposure in the CDS market — that’s one of the generally-accepted “legitimate” or non-naked forms of CDS trading There’s a reason why they’re called credit default swaps rather than bond default swapsBut more to the point the WSJ seems to be willfully naive about what’s going on here Why would you sell credit protection on GM debt Because it currently has very little debt outstanding because you don’t think it’s going to reach a remotely dangerous level of debt in the next five years and because you get to cash a steady flow of CDS premiums in the interim Essentially exactly the same reasons that you would buy GM bonds if any existed — only selling protection is much cheaper so you get a higher internal rate of returnAnd why would you buy credit protection on GM debt if there’s no such debt outstanding Maybe you intend to buy bonds when GM issues them and you want to lock in protection now while it’s cheap Maybe you are a GM supplier or you have exposure to one or in some other way you have GM counterparty risk which is easy and cheap to hedge at the moment Maybe you’re just taking the opposite side of the GM-Ford relative-value trade featured in the WSJ betting that over the long term GM is going to continue to struggle in the face of steadily declining US market share Or maybe you just reckon the price of credit protection on GM debt is going to go up rather than downWhatever the dynamics of GM CDS trading however this kind of extrapolation is a reach too far:If the cost of protection on GM continues to trade below Ford for example GM should be able to sell bonds at lower yields than FordIt’s bizarre to see this at the end of a whole article dedicated to the weirdness of the market in GM CDS and the fact that the price is largely a function of the fact that GM does not have any bonds outstanding At some point GM is going to start issuing new bonds and at that point various different investment banks will start talking to the carmaker about the level at which they might be priced I very much doubt that any such bank would tell GM that it could issue through Ford just because of where the two companies’ credit default swaps were tradingFor the time being GM CDS are trading at a tight level precisely because no one’s expecting a bond issue any time soon If GM starts making noises about raising money in the bond markets expect those CDS spreads to widen out significantly It’s still possible that GM bonds could trade through Ford of course — after all Ford would still be much more highly leveraged than GM But let’s not take today’s CDS market as much of an indication of anything It might not be financial alchemy But that still doesn’t make it a particularly useful guide to future bond pricing<br> 5 cents on the dollar — a valuation unthinkably low just a couple of years earlier. 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