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  • Started 10 years ago by lvzwa6qczb

  1. lvzwa6qczb
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    <p> he would have been visited Switzerland and Germany. Among them,moncler milano, the economic and trade issues become the focus of public attention. May 24,giuseppe zanotti homme, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations Zhang Jian, director of the European BEIJING guest "News Let's Talk",imitation louboutin pas cher, interpret the relevant topics. WASHINGTON correspondent Zhang Longyun photoBEIJING, May 24 when electric China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Zhang Jian, director of the 24th European BEIJING guest "News Let's Talk," said the Premier Li Keqiang's visit to Germany, the two sides could further deepen PV "double "Anti understanding on the issue, to reach some consensus. In the China-EU cooperation.</p>

    <p> or for a more substantial adjustment (allowing a second child), as far as possible so that future fertility rate closer to the equilibrium level of 1.8 within this range . Growth effect of policy adjustment As the working-age population into the negative growth, the demographic dividend will eventually disappear, economic growth from the past into a relatively low-speed normal growth is inevitable. Fertility policy adjustments demographic dividend can not be reversed in the short term. However, proactive adjust fertility policy, for the balanced development of China's population and the future long-term potential growth rate,christian louboutin pas cher, you can still have a positive effect. After adjustment for population growth policy, will not produce short-term positive impact on potential GDP growth, the negative impact is also very weak, less 0.01 percentage points. However,scarpini nike, after a generation of people entering the labor market,jordan 5 retro, policy adjustment a positive effect on the potential growth rate will be more obvious. According to our simulations.</p>

    <p> promote the balanced structure of the total population and the long term, we want to see a marked increase in fertility levels. So, we can accept what the policy level fertility, the total fertility rate, or the cordon is how much? From a demographic point of view,peuterey prezzi, a number of children women bear lifelong fertility rate is lower than the sum of the replacement level 2.1, it can be defined as a low birthrate. The international community that, according to population and economic and social consequences that may arise, 1.5~2.1 low fertility level, 1.3~1.5 as low birth rate, and 1.3 or less is extremely low fertility rate. Low fertility level will lead to a series of economic and social problems, the most immediate problem is the aging population and labor shortage, resulting in diminishing returns of capital, a significant reduction in potential economic growth. Moreover, the interaction of many factors, etc. population, economy and society, once fertility levels fall to very low range, the long-term sustainability, the formation of bad circulation. Experience has shown that 1.5 is a critical level of fertility, once below this level, even if it increased to 1.6 are difficult. In the case of China the equivalent of replacement level fertility rates have only 2/3 of the policy adjustments should be put on the agenda. Low fertility should not be the goal of China's population policy development,nobis jacket, remain "moderate" low fertility level, we can not lower than 1.5, should not be more than 2.1. In fact, due to the demographic transition trends depend not only on the implementation of a policy.</p>

    <p> the effect on fertility policy adjustments potential economic growth rate in 2030 will be revealed later. To maintain the current policy and the fertility level of the case as a frame of reference, through policy adjustments in the total fertility rate rapidly increased to 1.77~1.94 and maintained the situation, 2031 - a potential growth rate in 2035 may increase by 7.1% ~11.8% , 2046 ~ 2050 can increase the potential growth rate of 15.5% ~22.0%. The total fertility rate increased to the next level 1.77~1.94,moncler italia, and coincided with the immediate release "two-child" of the reform program, respectively. There are two points worth noting. First of all,tn, as long as proper guidance, policy adjustment within this range will not cause loss of control situation. Specifically,nike air max, in the early implementation of the Family Planning Policy in the past,jordan 5 retro, effective birth control measures can be applied to the case of two children or more; after adjustment is complete and stable, policy focusing on the promotion of birth control, improve the relevant service system; then gradually transition to the birth of independent policy orientation; after the total population peaked,woolrich outlet, policy objectives should shift to encourage fertility. Secondly, through policy adjustments to improve the fertility rate is closer to replacement level (eg 1.77~1.94), it is one of the most optimistic scenario. According to the experience of many other Asian economies,giuseppe zanotti, the policy is likely to release but can not be reversed a downward trend in fertility. In that case,abercrombie, pro-natalist policy orientation should come earlier. & Nbsp; (The author is the CASS Institute of Economics and Labor Director of Population) (EdiAfter the visit to India and Pakistan, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's first visit since the 24th into the "European time".</p>

    <p> and more is the inevitable result of economic and social development, so no matter what kind of policy adjustment programs, we are very difficult to see the fertility rate increased to 2.1 the result of. Over the years,barbour france, the department in charge of the population working conditions starting from a large population, the fertility level of 1.8 as a benchmark to judge the level of fertility, advocate long-term fertility rate should be approximately maintained at about 1.8 is appropriate. In the current demographers made various predictions and simulations, in addition to individual results suggest that further liberalization "two-child" will in the short term (3-5 years) than the TFR cause high prices,barbour pas cher, alternative level exceeds 2.1, The vast majority have come to a long-term total fertility rate of 1.9 or less, and tends to decrease over time predictions. Therefore,tn air max 2014 pas cher, the choice of fertility policy adjustments ultimately rests: the maintenance of the current low fertility level of 1.4.</p>
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