<p> so no matter what kind of policy adjustment programs, we are very difficult to see the fertility rate increased to 2.1 the result of. Over the years, the department in charge of the population working conditions starting from a large population,nike pas cher,http://www.yxluntan.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1704388, the fertility level of 1.8 as a benchmark to judge the level of fertility, advocate long-term fertility rate should be approximately maintained at about 1.8 is appropriate. In the current demographers made various predictions and simulations, in addition to individual results suggest that further liberalization "two-child" will in the short term (3-5 years) than the TFR cause high prices,peuterey roma, alternative level exceeds 2.1,barbour pas cher, The vast majority have come to a long-term total fertility rate of 1.9 or less,barbour pas cher, and tends to decrease over time predictions. Therefore, the choice of fertility policy adjustments ultimately rests: the maintenance of the current low fertility level of 1.4,http://www.guppy.cn/home.php?mod=space&uid=191854, or for a more substantial adjustment (allowing a second child), as far as possible so that future fertility rate closer to the equilibrium level of 1.8 within this range . Growth effect of policy adjustment As the working-age population into the negative growth,piumini peuterey, the demographic dividend will eventually disappear,http://test.chinawu.net/home.php?mod=space&uid=2912,nike air max femme, economic growth from the past into a relatively low-speed normal growth is inevitable. Fertility policy adjustments demographic dividend can not be reversed in the short term. However.</p>
<p> the formation of bad circulation. Experience has shown that 1.5 is a critical level of fertility, once below this level,air max one, even if it increased to 1.6 are difficult. In the case of China the equivalent of replacement level fertility rates have only 2/3 of the policy adjustments should be put on the agenda. Low fertility should not be the goal of China's population policy development, remain "moderate" low fertility level, we can not lower than 1.5, should not be more than 2.1. In fact,tn, due to the demographic transition trends depend not only on the implementation of a policy,http://yao.ms/thread-118656-1-1.html,louboutin, and more is the inevitable result of economic and social development.</p>
<p> proactive adjust fertility policy, for the balanced development of China's population and the future long-term potential growth rate,nike tn officiel, you can still have a positive effect. After adjustment for population growth policy,louboutin noir,http://bbs.yioyou.com/home.php?mod=space&uid=4994&do=blog&quickforward=1&id=242816, will not produce short-term positive impact on potential GDP growth, the negative impact is also very weak, less 0.01 percentage points. However, after a generation of people entering the labor market,http://211.86.128.2/gjjl/Review.asp?NewsID=595, policy adjustment a positive effect on the potential growth rate will be more obvious. According to our simulations, the effect on fertility policy adjustments potential economic growth rate in 2030 will be revealed later. To maintain the current policy and the fertility level of the case as a frame of reference, through policy adjustments in the total fertility rate rapidly increased to 1.77~1.94 and maintained the situation,abercrombie bologna, 2031 - a potential growth rate in 2035 may increase by 7.</p>
<p> So,chaussure louboutin pas cher, we can accept what the policy level fertility,tn requin, the total fertility rate, or the cordon is how much? From a demographic point of view, a number of children women bear lifelong fertility rate is lower than the sum of the replacement level 2.1, it can be defined as a low birthrate. The international community that, according to population and economic and social consequences that may arise, 1.5~2.1 low fertility level,http://xtxybbs.com/home.php?mod=spacecp&ac=blog&blogid=, 1.3~1.5 as low birth rate, and 1.3 or less is extremely low fertility rate. Low fertility level will lead to a series of economic and social problems, the most immediate problem is the aging population and labor shortage, resulting in diminishing returns of capital,veste barbour, a significant reduction in potential economic growth. Moreover, the interaction of many factors,woolrich donna, etc. population,chaussures christian louboutin, economy and society,http://csislebanon.org/search/node/,woolrich milano, once fertility levels fall to very low range, the long-term sustainability.</p>